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El Nino Returns
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Added: 05/11/2004
Type: Summary
Viewed: 871 time(s)
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El Nino Returns
El Nino Awakens. Agricultural impacts are more likely to be noted in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere in 2004.
Since the first quarter of 2003, NINO3 sea surface temperatures have been ill defined, that is, neither cool enough to be called La Nina nor warm enough to classify as El Nino. So far in 2004, NINO3 sea surface temperatures have been positive, but slowly trending toward normal.
Dynamic Predictables is expecting NINO3 sea surface temperatures to reverse trend and to resume warming to weak El Nino levels before Autumn 2004 and to remain moderately warm thru spring 2005. The intensity of this El Nino will be moderate with nowhere near the impact of the 1998 record-breaking event. By moderate, Dynamic Predictables means amplitudes from one to two degrees C above the 1950-1979 average. However, this El Nino will be noteworthy in that it will linger thru spring 2005, a significant period of time.
The agricultural impact of El Nino is more evident in the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere, and because of the timing of this event, beginning in the Southern Hemisphere's 2004 winter and persisting into their 2005 summer growing season, Southern Hemispheric impact may be significant, with drought a concern. Drought in certain key crop areas and Floods in certain others lead the list of concerns.
El Nino impact in the Northern Hemisphere can be significant along coastal areas specifically in the southwest and along the Gulf coast. The principle agricultural El Nino impact in the Northern Hemisphere is generous to excessive moisture. The timing of this event may mitigate agricultural impacts as the 2004 growing season will be well under way before the possibility of increased moisture builds. However, even a possibility for generous moisture in the July August 2004 crop calendar would be beneficial to corn and soybeans, for example. Although the El Nino event will tend to diminish before the 2005 growing season, generous winter and spring rains would at least imply full soil moisture at the beginning of the 2005 crop year.
A graphic depiction of the NINO3 Sea Surface temperature outlook is available at http://www.dynamicpredictables.com
Monthly outlooks of temperature and precipitation are also available.
About Dynamic Predictables, LLC. – Dynamic Predictables is a private weather, water and climate corporation providing comprehensive weather, climate and impact assessment for agriculture, construction, distribution, energy, media and custom climatology interests. Sophisticated algorithms provide improved definition of time and space applications on a dedicated contractual basis. Dynamic Predictables mean monthly outlooks of temperature and precipitation are available as much as one full year in advance. Climate forecasts are also available for selected international locations. |
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